Taiwan business cycle indicator and signal light
The business cycle indicator for 2026/09 is 41 points, a Red light (official reading: booming). Source: National Development Council, updated monthly.
Composite score history
Blue light 9–16Yellow-blue light 17–22Green light 23–31Yellow-red light 32–37Red light 38–45
Leading, coincident and lagging indexes (detrended)
━ Leading━ Coincident━ Lagging
Last 12 months
| Month | Score | Light | Leading | Coincident | Lagging |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/09 | 41 | Red light | 104.7 | 105.2 | 105.9 |
| 2026/08 | 40 | Red light | 104.1 | 105.2 | 104.9 |
| 2026/07 | 41 | Red light | 103.5 | 105.2 | 103.8 |
| 2026/06 | 41 | Red light | 103.0 | 105.1 | 102.5 |
| 2026/05 | 39 | Red light | 102.4 | 104.8 | 101.1 |
| 2026/04 | 40 | Red light | 101.8 | 104.4 | 99.6 |
| 2026/03 | 39 | Red light | 101.2 | 103.8 | 98.2 |
| 2026/02 | 41 | Red light | 100.8 | 103.0 | 97.2 |
| 2026/01 | 39 | Red light | 100.6 | 102.2 | 96.6 |
| 2025/12 | 38 | Red light | 100.3 | 101.4 | 96.4 |
| 2025/11 | 37 | Yellow-red light | 99.8 | 100.7 | 96.4 |
| 2025/10 | 35 | Yellow-red light | 99.3 | 100.3 | 96.5 |
What the lights mean
| Light | Score | Official reading |
|---|---|---|
| Blue light | 9–16 | sluggish |
| Yellow-blue light | 17–22 | transitional |
| Green light | 23–31 | stable |
| Yellow-red light | 32–37 | transitional |
| Red light | 38–45 | booming |
The signal converts several economic series (M1B, the stock price index, industrial production, overtime hours, customs exports, machinery and electrical equipment imports, manufacturing sales, and wholesale, retail and restaurant sales, among others) into scores, adds them up and maps the total to a light. The Learn section explains how it is built and read. What is the business cycle signal?
FAQ
How often is the business cycle indicator published?
Taiwan's National Development Council publishes it around the end of each month for the previous month, so the data month shown is usually one month behind. Earlier figures are revised every month.
What does a red light mean?
The indicator uses five lights based on a composite score from 9 to 45: blue 9–16 (sluggish), yellow-blue 17–22 (transitional), green 23–31 (stable), yellow-red 32–37 (transitional) and red 38–45 (booming). This is the official description of the economy, not advice about any investment.
How do leading, coincident and lagging indexes differ?
All three are composites of several economic series. The leading index tends to turn before the economy does, the coincident index moves with it and the lagging index follows later. The detrended lines are centred on 100 so turning points can be compared side by side.
Related
Source: National Development Council (Taiwan Open Government Data, dataset 6099), used under the Open Government Data License v1. Figures for earlier periods are revised each month, so go by the data month shown. For education and personal reference only; not investment advice.